Understanding
Jihadist Approach to Syria
In his book “Knights Under Prophet’s Banner”, Al-Qaeda
leader Ayman Al Zawaheery suggests new doctrine that contains regular army
instead of unites in western countries and national state-like formations in
Muslim countries. In the same book, he also mentions “Islam Nation” and
complaining of likening of Islamic slogans to leftist’s slogans and gives
Palestine a n example. He says “the jihad in Afghanistan is a pure jihad”. The
approach he writes in his book has been adopted by ISIS the former ally,
current foe. As making propaganda against “western values” ISIS also using 19th
century style tools to launch nation building campaign which have been used in
west. As it can be observed uniforms, flag, IDs, are very popular in ISIS
propaganda. And this shows that ISIS following Zawahery’s doctrine and
establishing a state-like form. The symbols which mentioned are for building a
nation/ummah for their “state”. Actually, the best example could be that they
changed their name to “Islamic State”.
While ISIS was
rapidly establishing its state, Zawaheery led Al Qaeeda (AQ) was slow to apply
their leader’s doctrine. As well as military dynamics on field, domestics
discussions also affected AQ to be late for establishing “Islamic State” before
the ISIS. Because, some groups in AQ were thinking that “the time for Islamic
State didn’t come” and as first step they should form “Amirates” and these
groups were supporting their view by some HADITH. A discussion alike can be
seen in Iran. According to some Shia intellectuals, “time for Islamic State
didn’t come yet”.
The importance of
Syrian civil war for the jihadism is not only physical but also spiritual.
According to some HADITH, a “great war” in Syria (Bilad Al-Sham) has estimated
1500 years ago and place in heaven (cannah) has pledged to MOUJAHEDEEN who
fight in this war. This also explains foreign fighter wave to Syria.
In the Kobane and Tel Abyad battles, ISIS lost its image of
“invincible”. And its collapse is going on in Raqqa. The military collapsing of
ISIS in Syria and Iraq as well, pushed ISIS to turn on old style asymmetric
attacks in western countries. Differently from post 9/11 era, ISIS used
vehicles and “lone wolf” attack styles.
Operation of Raqqa
doesn’t only effect on Raqqa but also effects Deir Ez-Zor in east and Afrin in
west. As Turkish Army mobilized around Tal Abyad recently, YPG reinforced its
troops at north and suspended Raqqa op. The operation re-started after US
special forces troops started patrolling on border and provided new weapons
included armored vehicles and troops carries.
Actually, it is known
that YPG is not so willing for Raqqa op. since very beginning but YPG also
aware that Raqqa op. is only opportunity to gain political and military support
of US. Another factor for launching Raqqa op. could be that Raqqa where is at
south of YPG territories has strategic importance to secure north, also known
as “Rojava”.
Other factors very
related with Raqqa operation are Afrin and Deir Ez-Zor. There is a hidden
competition between US backed SDF and Syrian regime. Since regime forces in
DeirezZor city are encircled by ISIS and its potential strategic importance,
regime gives priority to capture Deir Ez-Zor as soon as possible. As of today,
regime forces are just 60 km away from the city. Since SDF are focused on Raqqa
op. it seems regime has advantage to capture Deir Ez-Zor but it is notable that
YPG still hold AL Kubar military base at north side of Euphrates river where is
less than 60 km away from the Deir Ez-Zor city center.
Another factor may affect
on Raqqa op. is YPG hold Afrin. Recently Turkey intended to intervene to this
proclaimed canton as they did in Shield of Euphrates op. but both Russia and US
stated their concerns about it. Also, YPG, in their statements, shadowed out
that they may stop Raqqa op. if Turkey attacks Afrin. Then statements from US
that “any intervene that may endanger Raqqa op. is unacceptable” followed this.
Even though Afrin canton doesn’t have connection with other
cantons (Kobane and Jezeera) it is known that regime allowed YPG to reinforce
from Kobane to Afrin via its land. Since regime doesn’t want Turkish presence
in Afrin due the concern over Idleb, it also not very willing YPG to empower
its military presence in Afrin. We could say that regime (and its ally Iran)
performing for a balance policy between Turkey and Kurdish forces. However,
since YPG needs regime and Russian support for Afrin, it could be argued that
YPG will not very willing to capture Deir Ez-Zor. In other saying, YPG may keep
Deir Ez-Zor as a leverage against regime to secure its gains in west, Afrin.
Final
Syrian civil war
became very complicated since beginning. In this analyze we only gave coverage
for actually events. Anyone who observes Syrian Civil War from very beginning
would know that there are too many fighting groups on field and each inch of
country has own parameters and dynamics.
The war is in a stage
that any event in north may affect to south, and event in east may west and
whole world, like as a butterfly effect. As a general view, we could say that ISIS and
its de-facto state being collapsed and as military it will be defeated but the
ideology of ISIS is far to be destroyed. So that means the world, unlike the
9/11 not only west, may face asymmetric terror attacks or events like Philippines.
Syrian regime and
Kurdish forces seem to be short term winner of Civil War but as some of
analysts state a conflict between two forces. By “conflict” we don’t only mean
an armed conflict but a competition between regime and Rojava Federation. However,
we didn’t give coverage Turkey’s Syrian policy and intervenes in this analyze
just because we think it needs explanation of Turkey’s domestics politics, coup
attempt etc. We think this should be a subject of analyze by itself. Like as
Turkey, Hezbullah, Iran even China and Israel are actors in civil war. As we
mentioned, this topic may be subject of articles and studies by themselves.
